Estimated 2023-2024 COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in Adults

Importance: SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, population immunity changes, and COVID-19 vaccine formulas have been updated, necessitating ongoing COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) monitoring.

Objectives: To evaluate the VE of 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccines against COVID-19-associated emergency department (ED) and urgent care (UC) encounters, hospitalizations, and critical illness, including during XBB- and JN.1-predominant periods.

Design, setting, and participants: This test-negative design VE case-control study was conducted using data from September 21, 2023, to August 22, 2024, from EDs, UC centers, and hospitals in 6 US health care systems. Eligible adults 18 years or older with COVID-19-like illness and molecular or antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 were studied. Case patients were those with a positive molecular or antigen test result; control patients were those with a negative molecular test result.

Exposure: Receipt of 2023-2024 (monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19 vaccination with products approved or authorized for use in the US.

Main outcomes and measures: Main outcomes were COVID-19-associated ED and UC encounters, hospitalizations, and critical illness (admission to the intensive care unit or in-hospital death). VE was estimated comparing the odds of receipt of the 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccine with no receipt among case and control patients.

Results: Among 345 639 eligible ED and UC encounters in immunocompetent adults 18 years or older with COVID-19-like illness and available test results (median [IQR] age, 53 [34-71] years; 209 087 [60%] female), 37 096 (11%) had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. VE against COVID-19-associated ED and UC encounters was 24% (95% CI, 21%-26%) during 7 to 299 days after vaccination. Among 111 931 eligible hospitalizations in immunocompetent adults 18 years or older with COVID-19-like illness and available test results (median [IQR] age, 71 [58-81] years), 10 380 (9%) had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. During 7 to 299 days after vaccination, VE was 29% (95% CI, 25%-33%) against COVID-19-associated hospitalization and 48% (95% CI, 40%-55%) against COVID-19-associated critical illness. VE was highest 7 to 59 days after vaccination (VE against ED and UC encounters 49%; 95% CI, 46%-52%; hospitalization, 51%; 95% CI, 46%-56%; critical illness, 68%; 95% CI, 56%-76%) and then waned (VE 180-299 days after vaccination against ED and UC encounters, -7% [95% CI, -13% to -2%]; hospitalization, -4% [95% CI, -14% to 5%]; and critical illness, 16% [95% CI, -6 to 34%]).

Conclusions and relevance: In this case-control study of VE, 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccines were estimated to provide additional effectiveness against medically attended COVID-19, with the highest and most sustained estimates against critical illness. These results highlight the importance of receiving recommended COVID-19 vaccination for adults 18 years or older.